Geoff Cowling

There were more treats than tricks in today's monthly GDP data. The Canadian economy expanded for a seventh consecutive month in August, growing at a 0.1 per cent monthly rate.  Growth was driven by the oil and gas and finance and insurance sectors.  The output of real estate agents and brokers jumped 2 per cent, the third straight monthly increase. However, output from Canadian real agents and brokers remained close to 17 per cent lower than the December 2017 level prior to the introduction of the B20 mortgage stress test.

With two months of third quarter GDP data now available, we are tracking overall third quarter growth at close to 2 per cent.  With the economy on solid footing, the Bank of Canada will continue to raise its policy rate over the next year. While we expect that the next move will be in January, a December rate hike can not be ruled out completely.

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US real GDP growth remained strong in the third quarter at 3.5 per cent, albeit down from 4.2 per cent in the second quarter. Economic growth was led by a strong contribution from consumer spending, which grew at its fastest rate since 2014, while an accumulation of business inventories made its largest contribution to growth since 2015.  Government spending grew at its fastest rate in two years, but business investment slowed and net exports created their largest drag on growth in 33 years as US tariffs dampened trade.  Today's data gives the US Federal Reserve further reason to keep tightening monetary policy, which will put further upward pressure on medium term interest rates in the US and Canada.
 
  The US economy has been riding high this year from debt-financed government stimulus, but that growth is expected to slow in 2019 as that stimulus fades and higher interest rates and a continued trade war act to slow the economy.

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The Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy is expected to average growth of 2 per cent over the second half of 2018 before slowing to 1.9 per cent next year.  The renegotiation of NAFTA is expected to lower uncertainty and boost business investment and exports while households spending and the housing market are stabilizing after the implementation of the B20 mortgage stress test. Inflation is expected to remain close to 2 per cent over the Bank's two year projection horizon.
   
The resolution of NAFTA negotiations earlier in the fall paved the way for the Bank of Canada to resume its rate tightening this morning.  While inflation data came in slightly soft in September, the Canadian economy is still operating above its long-run trend which should keep inflation near the Bank's 2 per cent target. The Bank will meet one final time in 2018 at its December meeting, at which we expect policymakers will maintain the target rate at is current level before raising the target rate to 2 per cent in January 2019.  As the target rate continues on its path higher, Canadian mortgage rates will continue to rise, ultimately resulting in a 6 per cent qualifying rate by the end of 2019.

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Canadian retail sales declined 0.1 per cent on a monthly basis in August, but were 3.6 per cent higher on a year-over-year basis. Retail sales were lower in 7 of 11 sub-sectors representing 52 per cent of total retail trade. After a spending binge in 2017 which saw retail sales grow nearly ten per cent,  BC consumers have closed their wallets this year. BC retail sales declined 0.1 per cent on a monthly basis in August and were just 1.3 per cent higher year-over-year.  

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), registered 2.2 per cent in the 12 months to September, down from the nearly 3 per cent rate recorded in July and August. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation softened slightly in September, but still remain at or near the Bank's two per cent target.  In BC, provincial consumer price inflation was 2.5 per cent in the 12 months to September.  Although inflation numbers have softened slightly, it is still widely expected that the Bank of Canada will raise its overnight rate at its next meeting on October 24.

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Total Canadian employment increased by 62,000 jobs in September, reversing the similar sized decline from August. Part-time employment accounted for most of the gain, rising by 80,000 while full-time work declined.   The national unemployment rate declined 0.1 points to 5.9 per cent and total hours worked across the economy rose 0.6 per cent.  Total employment was up 1.2 per cent over this time last year.
 
In BC, employment rose for a third consecutive month as the economy added an astonishing 33,000 jobs in September (near the all-time record of 34,700 set in May 2015), including 26,000 full-time jobs. Employment in the third quarter was up 54,000 jobs after declining in the first half of the year.  On a year-over-year basis, employment was up 1.7 per cent and the provincial unemployment rate fell 1.1 points to 4.2 per cent, the lowest rate of unemployment in the province since June 2008.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.