Geoff Cowling

Canadian employment lost 63k jobs in December (-0.3%, m/m), representing the first decline since April 2020. This comes on the heels of many provinces reinstating public health measures that closed recreational facilities and in-person dining services. The decline was led by part-time employment, specifically among youth aged 15 to 24 and those 55 and above. Employment declined in all provinces except for BC. The national unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 8.6%, which is still a fall from the record high of 13.7% in May 2020. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 3.0% (-572k).

In BC, employment grew by 3.8k (0.2%, m/m) in December, following a gain of 24k in the previous month. The province continues to be at 99% of its pre-COVID February employment level. The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 7.2%, the first increase since the record high of 13.4% in May 2020. Meanwhile, in Vancouver, employment decreased by 1.1k (-0.1%, m/m). Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 1.4% (-37K) jobs.

Despite rising cases of COVID-19 across the country, employment in BC bucked the trend and grew in December. Industries that saw the largest increases were construction and manufacturing, while like the rest of the country, employment fell in accommodation and food services. On the whole, we can expect national employment growth to come to a standstill as caseloads and hospitalizations increase, leaving many provinces to extend restrictions and partial lockdowns. 

Canadian real GDP grew by 0.4% in October, following a 0.8% increase in September. This is the weakest rate of growth since May but marks the sixth consecutive monthly increase in GDP since the steepest drop in Canadian history was observed earlier this year. Sixteen of the twenty industries reported an increase in output. Leading the increase was professional services (1.0%), while accommodation and food services reported a steep decline (-3.9%) as patios closed up and heightened restrictions were implemented.

Early estimates from Statistics Canada indicate that real GDP grew by 0.4% in November. We continue to anticipate growth, albeit at a slower rate as the economy has once again been hampered by rising COVID-19 cases and lockdowns in many provinces. The soft handoff to the new year will mean that the first quarter of 2021 will struggle to report any growth.  

Retail sales rose for the sixth consecutive month in October by 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which is higher than Statistic Canada's preliminary estimate of no change. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 50.9% of retail sales. The increase was led by higher sales at auto and parts dealers. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 7.5%.    

Sales were up in seven provinces in October. In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were up by 2.1% ($8.0 billion) and by 2.8% ($3.7 billion) in Vancouver. Contributing the most to the increase were sales at health and personal care stores. Compared to the same time last year, BC retail sales were up by 11.5%.   

In October, e-commerce sales totaled $3.1 billion, accounting for 5.2% of total retails sales, which is down from 5.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, e-commerce sales were up by 68% from a year ago. This excludes Canadians purchasing from foreign e-commerce retailers.  
    
Despite the rising cases of COVID-19 and stricter lockdown measures in many provinces, positive retail sales are expected going into the holiday season, especially in e-commerce.

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% in November year-over-year. This is the largest increase since the pandemic started in March. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.4%. Prices rose in six of eight components year-over-year in November, with the recreation, education, and reading index contributing the most to the increase. Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation remains unchanged from the previous month, averaging 1.7%. 

Regionally, the CPI was positive in eight provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 1.1% in November year-over-year, up from October's increase of 0.5%. Strong price growth continued for health and personal care (3.3%) and shelter (2.4%). In contrast, gas prices continue to be a drag on BC's inflation (-12.3%). 

Costs for shelter continue to increase, as rental rates rise and record-low interest rates put downward pressure on mortgage costs, making single-family homes more attractive to households demanding more space. As containment measures expand in many provinces, consumers are spending more on furniture and household appliances, which remain above pre-pandemic levels. Canadian inflation is expected to remain subdued in the near future. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will continue to keep interest rates low.

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, purchasing at least $4 billion of Government of Canada bonds per week and re-affirmed its forward guidance on future interests moves, committing to holding the policy rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation is sustainably trending at 2 per cent.   In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the recovery underway will be choppy due to rising cases of COVID-19 and will continue to require extraordinary monetary support from the bank.

Current slack in the economy, along with low energy prices, is holding Canadian inflation well below its target of 2 per cent. Total CPI inflation is trending under 1 per cent while the Bank of Canada’s measures of “core” inflation remain below target despite the massive expansion of the Bank’s balance sheet necessary to facilitate its quantitative easing program. With the arrival of viable vaccines, we may see the Canadian economic recovery materially accelerate in the second half of 2021. If that occurs, the first stage of tighter monetary policy from the Bank will be how and when it decides to taper purchases of government bonds over the next year. As it does,  we may start to see a divergence in variable and fixed rates by early summer as bond yields rise and fixed mortgage rates move marginally higher.

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% in October year-over-year, up from the previous month's increase of 0.5%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.1%. Prices rose in five of eight components year-over-year in October, with food contributing the most to the increase due to rising prices for lettuce as a result of disease and inclement weather. Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points in October, averaging 1.8%. 

Regionally, the CPI was positive in all provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 0.5% in October year-over-year, up from September's increase of 0.4%. Strong price growth continued for health and personal care (3.1%), shelter (2.2%), and food (2.0%). In contrast, downward price pressures were ongoing in gas (-18.0%), clothing and footwear (-3.8%), and transportation (-1.7%). 

Costs for shelter continue to increase, as record-low interest rates put downward pressure on mortgage costs. This has made single-family homes more attractive to households demanding more space. As provinces such as Ontario and Quebec expand their containment measures, and with new restrictions in BC, Canadian inflation is expected to remain subdued. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will continue to keep interest rates low.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-oct-november-18-2020

Vancouver, BC – November 12, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 11,051 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October 2020, an increase of 43.8 per cent from October 2019. The average MLS® residential price in BC set a record of $812,960, a 12.5 per cent increase from $722,333 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in August was $8.98 billion, a 61.8 per cent increase over 2019.

“The provincial housing market sustained its blistering pace of activity in October,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While pent-up demand may be starting to fade, record low interest rates and a recovering job market are supporting strong sales.”

“A pandemic-driven shift in buyers’ preference for extra space is pushing average prices to record highs as larger value transactions account for a higher share of sales,” added Ogmundson. Prices are also being pushed higher by a lack of inventory. Total provincial active listings continue to trend lower and were close to 14 per cent lower in October 2020 compared to 2019.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 29.7 per cent to $58.7 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were up 16.3 per cent to 76,140 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 11.5 per cent to $771,085.   

Canadian employment gained 84k jobs in October (0.5%, m/m), following a gain of 378k in September. This is the sixth consecutive month of increases, putting national employment within 636k of its pre-COVID February level. The national unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9%, as some provinces reinstated containment measures targeted at restaurants and bars, and recreational facilities. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 3.1% (-598k).

Regionally, employment increased in five provinces, with the largest gains in BC and Ontario. In BC, employment grew by 33.5k (1.4%, m/m) in October, following a gain of 55k in September. The province is now at 97% of its pre-COVID February employment level. The unemployment rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, down by 0.4 percentage points to 8.0%. Meanwhile, in Vancouver, employment increased by 52k jobs (3.8%, m/m). Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 3.3% (-86K) jobs.

As expected, employment recovery was slower in October than the jumps we saw earlier on. Gains in industries that were hardest hit reported some backpedaling in October, as a few provinces reinstated containment measures. As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, the path to recovery will be tougher, especially if containment measures in Ontario and Quebec are prolonged, and if other provinces/territories decide to follow suit.

Vancouver, BC – November 4, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2020 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 16.9 per cent to 90,450 units this year, after recording 77,350 residential sales in 2019. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 9.7 per cent to 99,240 units in 2021.

 “The housing market had a record fall season and prices are rapidly rising as pent-up demand floods into an under-supplied market,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “As that pent-up demand fades, sales will likely come down from their current record pace, albeit to a still robust level of activity as record-low mortgage rates and a recovering economy continue to drive sales.”

On the supply side, active listings remain low due to hesitation on the part of sellers to list during the pandemic. Some additional supply may come online following the end of mortgage deferral programs, but given the tightness of market conditions, that supply is unlikely to be disruptive. We are forecasting the provincial MLS® average price to finish the year up 9.9 per cent and to increase a further 2.6 per cent in 2021.

Canadian real GDP grew 1.2 per cent in August, following a 3.1 per cent increase in July.  That is the fourth consecutive monthly increase in GDP following the steepest contraction of the Canadian economy on record. The overall level of economic output remains about 5 per cent below its per-pandemic level.

Third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at close to 10 per cent, or about 46 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis.  From there, we anticipate a strong, albeit slower rate of growth as the economy heals and enters a “recuperation phase.”  Like the Bank of Canada, we do not expect slack in the economy to be fully absorbed until around 2023, which, given the Bank's guidance earlier this week, means that interest rates will remain historically low for quite sometime.  Those low rates will continue to provide a significant boost to an already strong BC housing market. 

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, though re-calibrated to target longer-term bonds and slightly scaled back from purchasing $5 billion per week in Government of Canada bonds to $4 billion per week. The Bank also reiterated forward guidance on future interests moves, committing to holding the policy rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation is sustainably trending at 2 per cent.   In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy is recovering, though at a highly uneven rate, with the pandemic particularly affecting low-income workers.  Overall, the Bank expects a decline in Canadian real GDP of 5.5 per cent this year, before growing 4 per cent next year. Inflation is expected to remain below its 2 per cent target through 2022.

With the Bank committing to holding its policy rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed, and continuing its quantitative easing program of asset purchases, Canadian mortgage rates should remain at current historical lows for quite some time. Given the Bank's forward guidance on interest rates and its projection for inflation, those low rates are anticipated to remain in place until 2023, providing a significant boost to an already strong BC housing market.

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in September year-over-year, up from the previous month's increase of 0.1%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.0%. Prices rose in six of eight components year-over-year with notable increases in shelter (1.7%), food (1.6%), and health/personal care (1.6%), while prices declined for clothing/footwear (-4.1%) and recreation (-1.2%). Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation was flat in September, averaging 1.7%.

Regionally, the CPI was positive in seven provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 0.4% in September year-over-year, up from August's increase of 0.2%. Prices continued to rise for health/personal care (3.1%), shelter (1.6%), food (1.4%), and alcohol/tobacco/cannabis (1.3%). In contrast, downward price pressures were ongoing in gas (-13.4%), clothing/footwear (-3.5%), and recreation (-2.9%).

As some provinces such as Ontario and Quebec have reinstated stricter containment measures, Canadian inflation is expected to continue to be weak. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will continue to keep interest rates low.

Canadian real GDP grew 3 per cent in July, following a record 6.5 per cent increase in June.  However, even after three consecutive months of strong growth, the Canadian economy remains about 6 per cent below its pre-pandemic level of output.  All 20 Canadian industrial sectors posted increases in July, with the real estate sector surpassing its pre-pandemic level of GDP.

Statistics Canada preliminary estimate for August real GDP growth is 1 per cent, which means that third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at close to 10 per cent, or about 40 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis.  Still, even that unprecedented level of growth would still leave the Canadian economy about 4 per cent below its pre-pandemic level. From there, we anticipate a strong, albeit slower rate of growth as the economy heals and enters a “recuperation phase.”

Retail sales rose for the third consecutive month in July by 0.6% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, close to Statistic Canada's preliminary estimate of 0.7%. This marks a deceleration from the 23% rise in June and a 21% rise in May, as stores were reopening. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors, led by higher sales at auto dealers and at gas stations. Excluding these two subsectors, retail sales declined by 1.2%. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 5%.     Sales were up in five provinces in July, the most notable increases were in BC, Manitoba, and Alberta. In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were up by 2.1% ($7.6 billion) and by 0.9% ($3.4 billion) in Vancouver. Retail sales were up in the majority of subsectors, except in electronics/appliances and at auto dealers.   Growth in e-commerce sales continued to slow in July, up by 63% year-over-year, following a 71% rise in the previous month. The slowdown is a result of the expansion of the reopening of physical stores. In July, e-commerce sales totaled $2.8 billion, accounting for 4.8% of total retails sales, down from 5% in the previous month. This excludes Canadians purchasing from foreign e-commerce retailers.        Early estimates provided by Statistics Canada for August suggest that retail sales increased by 1.1%. Overall, the recovery in retail sales has been V-shaped with pent-up demand largely dissipated. Government support programs and low interest rates will continue to support retail spending. However, elevated unemployment levels, uncertainty around the continuation of deferral programs, and rising COVID-19 cases could also pose challenges going forward.

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in August year-over-year, matching last month's increase. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 0.6%. Prices rose in five of eight components year-over-year with notable increases in food, shelter, and personal care, while prices continued to fall for transportation, clothing and footwear, and recreation. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation rose by 0.1 percentage points, averaging 1.7% in August.

Regionally, the CPI was positive in five provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 0.2% in August year-over-year, matching last month's increase. Prices continued to rise for alcohol/tobacco/cannabis, food, shelter, household furnishings, and personal care. The increase in personal care was mainly due to higher prices for haircuts. In contrast, downward price pressures were ongoing in recreation, gas, transportation, and clothing and footwear.

As some provinces begin to re-visit containment measures seen earlier in the pandemic, inflation is expected to continue to be weak. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates low.

Vancouver, BC – September 14, 2020. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 10,172 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in August 2020, an increase of 42.8 per cent from August 2019. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $771,309, a 12.7 per cent increase from $684,093 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in August was $7.8 billion, a 61.1 per cent increase over 2019.

“Very strong provincial home sales continued in August,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While pent-up demand from the spring is driving much of the increase, we anticipate a sustained strong level of sales through the fall.”

Total provincial active listings are still down more than 10 per cent year-over-year, with some markets even more under-supplied as the pandemic continues to keep listings low. As a result, prices are sharply rising around the province.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 15.8 per cent to $40.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were up 4.9 per cent to 53,336 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 10.4 per cent to $757,504.   

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week in Government of Canada bonds. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy is evolving broadly in line with expectations, with a strong re-opening phase to be followed by slower, uneven growth and heavily reliant on policy support.  Inflation remains close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain below the Bank's 2 per cent target for some time.  The Bank re-emphasized its commitment to keep its policy rate at its effective lower bound of 0.25 per cent until slack is absorbed in the economy and inflation stabilizes around its 2 per cent target. Its QE program will continue until a recovery is well underway. Given the Bank's' current projections, that means rates could be on hold until 2022.

A recovery in the housing market is well underway with sales in BC surpassing their pre-COVID-19 level.  With the Bank committing to holding its policy rate at 25 basis points until slack in the economy is absorbed, and continuing its quantitative easing program of asset purchases, Canadian mortgage rates should remain at current historical lows for quite some time, providing a significant boost to the BC housing market.

Canadian employment gained 246,000 jobs in August (1.4%, m/m), following a gain of 419,000 in July. Combined with gains in May and June, national employment is now within 1.1 million of its pre-COVID February level. The national unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points to 10.2% from the previous month. August gains were driven by full-time work, wherein the previous month it was in part-time work. Employment continued to increase at a faster pace in the services sector with the help of growth in educational services, accommodation and food services, and in other services sectors. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 5.3% (-1 million).  Regionally, employment increased in all provinces except in Alberta and in New Brunswick, with the largest gains in Ontario (142K) and Quebec (54K). In BC, employment grew by 15,000 (0.6%,m/m) in August, which follows a 70,000 gain in July. The province is now at 94% of its pre-COVID February employment level. The gain in August brought down BC's unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points to 10.7%. Meanwhile, in Vancouver, employment decreased by 2,300 jobs in August. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 6.6% (-170K) jobs.  Canadian employment grew for a fourth consecutive month, but the pace of growth is slowing. This was expected as containment restrictions were lifted in the early summer months, but have since halted in an effort to contain rising virus infections. Employment recovery is expected to continue to slow from here on, as many of the hardest-hit industries have reopened and educators start to return to school.

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to fall in the second quarter of 2020 from 127.6 to 121.9, representing the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. It was the second largest drop in the indicator in over two decades, reflecting the hardest hit months of the pandemic in April and May. Compared to the same time last year, the index was down by 9.8 per cent. The second quarter of 2020 saw the complete shutdown of key economic industries in BC, while employment continued to decline in manufacturing and in key real estate sectors. In contrast, the financial component had the largest positive impact on the CLI on record, as REIT prices rose and risk spreads narrowed from the previous quarter. The underlying trend in the CLI continued its downward trend into the second quarter of 2020. This suggests that going forward, the environment for commercial real estate activity in BC will continue to be weak. BC’s economy was slowed by the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, and by the second quarter came to a halt. Manufacturing sales of both durable and nondurable goods fell by magnitudes not seen since the great financial crisis in 2009. The decline in wholesale trade was driven by lower sales in motor vehicles, and to a lesser extent by lower sales in personal and household goods such as clothing and footwear. Meanwhile, April saw the largest monthly drop in retail sales on record, as brick-and-mortar stores were shut down for most of the second quarter. Although online sales reached new highs during this period, they were not enough to offset the decline. Employment growth in key commercial real estate sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate and leasing was negative for the second consecutive quarter, down by about 1,700 jobs, which is notably fewer than the 13,500 jobs lost in the previous quarter. Manufacturing employment fell for the fourth consecutive quarter by about 5,170 jobs, almost three times the number of jobs lost in the previous quarter. The CLI’s financial component was positive in the second quarter of 2020 as the market bounced back from the full meltdown in late February that sent equity markets into free fall and government bond yields plummeting.

August 28, 2020

The Canadian economy contracted by 11.5 per cent from the first to the second quarter, or 38.9 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis, the steepest quarterly decline on record going back to 1961. Consumer spending fell 13.1 per cent as the start of the COVID-19 pandemic caused record job losses and prompted stores to close.  Business investment was down 16.2 per cent and exports fell 18.4 per cent as our trading partners dealt with the fallout of COVID-19 in their own economies.

The good news in an otherwise historically bad GDP report was that positive economic growth resumed with vigor following the record decline in April. The Canadian economy grew 4.8 per cent in May and 6.5 per cent in June, the highest monthly growth on record.  We are currently tracking third quarter real GDP growth at close to 8 per cent, or more than 30 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis. While that is a sharp and welcome rebound in economic activity, there is still quite a way to go before the Canadian economy is fully recovered. In fact, we do not expect real GDP to return to its pre-COVID-19 level until 2022.  That means that the current near-zero Bank of Canada policy rate and the resulting historically low 5-year fixed mortgage rates will be around for quite some time to come.