Posted on
July 12, 2023
by
Geoff Cowling
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy has been stronger than expected but is expected slow as higher interest rate work their way through the economy. On inflation, the Bank cited the recent easing of inflation to 3.4 per cent but also noted that core inflation continues to run a at 3 to 4 per cent pace and has been more persistent than anticipated. The Bank now forecasts a return to its 2 per cent target in mid-2025 rather than in 2024.
While inflation has come down significantly in the past year, the economy seems somewhat impervious to the Bank's efforts to slow it down. The labour market continues to add jobs at a robust pace, consumer spending was brisk during the first quarter and the housing market remains unexpectedly strong. Although the impact of rate increases can take time to be felt, we should be seeing some signs of a slowing economy emerge relatively soon. However, the likelihood of an impending recession and a related fall in interest rates now seem to fading, meaning homebuyers and homeowners may need to wait until next year for any mortgage relief. Indeed, 5-year bond yields are now near 4 per cent for the first time since 2007 which has driven 5-year fixed mortgage rates to their highest point this year. The Bank's statement suggests it may be on pause at 5 per cent, though further rate increases could be on the horizon if the economy continues to out-perform expectations.
Posted on
June 7, 2023
by
Geoff Cowling
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate this morning by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. In its statement accompanying the decision, the bank noted that the Canadian economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter and spending in interest rates sensitive sectors, like the housing market, has picked up. On inflation, the Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to ease to 3 per cent by summer, however, monthly inflation continues to trend about two times higher than its 2 per cent target, a circumstance the Bank fears could become persistent without immediate action.
After signalling a pause in its monetary tightening just a few months ago, the Bank of Canada has already changed course. While inflation has come down significantly, core inflation has been stubbornly trending around 4 per cent, and with home prices already recovering across the country, inflationary pressures are rising. In the Bank's estimation, interest rates will need to move higher to slow the economy and bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target. The Bank will likely raise its overnight rate at least once more to 5 per cent. Those expectations are already being priced into 5-year Canadian bond yields, which rose to their highest level since October 2022 following the rate decision. That increase will prompt mortgage lenders to follow suit, likely bringing 5-year fixed mortgage rates back to above 5.5 per cent.
Posted on
October 28, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian GDP edged up by 0.1 per cent in August, following similar increases in June and July. Growth in services-producing industries (+0.3 per cent) offset declines in goods-producing industries (-0.3 per cent) as GDP grew in 14 of 20 subsectors. Canadian real GDP is roughly 2.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew again by 0.1 per cent in September. GDP from the offices of real estate agents and brokers dropped 2.1 per cent in August, the sixth consecutive decline, as rising interest rates continued to restrain home sales.
GDP growth in recent months, though still positive, is showing signs of slowing. We are currently tracking Q3 real GDP growth at just 1.5 per cent, or about half the rate realized over the first half of 2022. That slowdown will likely continue as the Bank continues its tightening cycle, particularly in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. The Bank raised its overnight rate in October to 3.75 per cent and the final destination for the overnight rate may be around 4 per cent or above. However, with the rate now higher than the bank's estimate of the neutral rate, meaning monetary policy is no longer stimulative, increases in the overnight rate are expected to slow in subsequent announcements.
Posted on
September 20, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in August, down from 7.6 per cent last month. This was the second consecutive month of decelerating price growth driven primarily by declining gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 6.3 per cent year over year in August, down from 6.6 per cent in July. This reduced pace of price appreciation was driven by slowing increases in the price of transportation (+10.3 per cent) and shelter (+6.6 per cent), although grocery prices rose quickly (+11.9 per cent). Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 0.1 per cent, the slowest rate since December 2020. In BC, consumer prices rose 7.3 per cent year-over-year, down from 8 per cent last month. Average hourly wages grew 5.4 per cent year-over-year in August, indicating a decline in purchasing power.
August's CPI numbers continued to provide encouraging signs that inflation may be slowing. The latest data show declines not just driven by falling gas prices, but a softening in the rate of appreciation in core inflation including transport and shelter. However, markets will want to see sustained declines in the rate of inflation over the next several months before mortgage rates decline significantly. Bond yields are continuing to trend upwards, meaning that markets are still expecting an aggressive Bank of Canada singularly focused on bringing inflation back to its 2 per cent target.
Posted on
July 22, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales increased 2.2 per cent in May, hitting $62.2 billion. Sales grew in 8 of 11 subsectors, but were led by higher sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+9.2 and +3.3 per cent respectively). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, increased 0.6 per cent in May. In volume terms, sales were up 0.4 per cent.
In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales rose 1.3 per cent in May. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 3 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales rose 0.8 per cent month-over-month and were up 4.5 per cent year-over-year.
In May, Canadian e-commerce sales rose 6.5 per cent to 3.5 billion, corresponding to 4.9 per cent of retail sales. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, but is lower than during core months of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. |
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Posted on
June 29, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 7.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, up from 6.8 per cent last month. This was the fastest growth rate since January 1983. According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 9.7 per cent year-over-year, gasoline up 48 per cent, and shelter costs up 7.4 per cent. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 6.3 per cent year over year in May. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 1.1 per cent, the fastest pace since the introduction of the series in 1992. In BC, consumer prices rose 8.1 per cent year-over-year. Average hourly wages grew 3.9 per cent year-over-year in May, indicating a decline in purchasing power.
A steep trajectory for the overnight rate implies that the 5-year fixed mortgage rate could reach the 5 per cent level for the first time since 2009 while variable mortgage rates may rise to as high as 4.5 per cent. With the stress test for both insured and uninsured borrowers, prospective homebuyers are currently being qualified at a rate of 6.49 per cent with a strong possibility of qualifying at 7 per cent soon, a rate that has not been a reality in the Canadian mortgage market since the early 2000s.
Given how aggressive markets expect the Bank of Canada to be, any good news on inflation, or any significant deterioration in the Canadian economy, could see a significant reversal in the most recent jump in Canadian bond yields. However, the baseline case for now is a Bank of Canada that is single-minded in its pursuit of lower inflation.
Posted on
May 9, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
After growing in February and March to a record level, Canadian employment was little changed in April at 19,601k. The labour market is tight, with the Canadian unemployment rate declining by 0.1 to 5.2 per cent, the lowest rate on record since comparable data became available in 1976. The total hours worked fell 1.9 per cent in April while average hourly wages were up 3.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis, similar to March and February. Wage gains are below the inflation rate, however, which clocked in at 6.7 per cent year-over-year in the most-recent data. The employment rate held steady at 61.9 per cent.
Employment in BC was largely unchanged in April at 2,736k. Metro Vancouver's employment growth was also largely flat at -0.2 per cent month over month. The unemployment rate rose in April for a second month in a row, reaching 5.4 per cent and surpassing Canada's rate for the first time since mid-2020. |
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Posted on
April 22, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose 0.1 per cent to $59.9 billion in February. Despite declining sales at sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-5.1 per cent), higher sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores (+15.1 per cent) and gasoline stations (+6.2 per cent) drove the total upwards. Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, increased 1.4 per cent in February. In volume terms, sales were down 0.4 per cent.
In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales declined 0.9 per cent in February. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 0.2 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales fell 0.7 per cent month-over-month and were up 6 per cent year-over-year.
In February, Canadian e-commerce sales declined 16 per cent to 2.6 billion. As a result, e-commerce decreased from 6.2 per cent of total retail sales in January to 5.3 per cent in February. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.
Posted on
April 20, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 6.7% on a year-over-year basis in March, up from 5.7% in February. This was the largest gain since January 1991 (+6.7%). According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 8.7% year over year, gasoline up 39.8%, durable goods up 7.3%, restaurants up 5.4%, and shelter costs up 6.8%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 5.5% year over year in March. On a monthly basis, prices were up 1.4%, following an increase of 1% in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 6.0% year-over-year.
With inflation stubbornly high through the first quarter of the year and unemployment in Canada hitting a record low, the Bank of Canada is now planning to bring its policy rate back to a neutral level, between 1.75 and 2.75 per cent, much faster than previously anticipated. We expect the Bank will continue to tighten until there is clear evidence that inflation and inflation expectations are moderating back to normal levels. This more aggressive policy stance has already been priced into 5-year fixed mortgage rates, which are now on a path to surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in a decade. |
Posted on
April 14, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent. This was the first rate increase of more than 0.25 per cent since May 2000. The Bank will also begin so called "quantitative tightening" , meaning it will be shrinking its balance sheet over time, reversing the expansion that occurred in response to the pandemic. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that growth in Canada is strong and the economy is moving into a phase of excess demand with tight labour markets and significant pressure on consumer prices. The Bank expects the Canadian economy will grow 4.25 per cent this year before slowing to 3.25 per cent next year. On inflation, the Bank anticipates inflation will gradually decline from its current 6 per cent rate to 2.5 per cent by the second half of 2023. Finally, the Bank signalled that interest rates will need to rise further and that the timing and and pace of future increases will be guided by the Banks ongoing assessment of the economy.
With inflation stubbornly high through the first quarter of the year, exacerbated by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and unemployment in Canada hitting a record low, the Bank has opted for a more aggressive stance. Clearly the Bank is now planning to bring its policy rate back to a neutral level, between 1.75 and 2.75 per cent, much faster than previously anticipated. We expect the Bank will continue to tighten until there is clear evidence that inflation and inflation expectations are moderating back to normal levels. This more aggressive policy stance has already been priced into 5-year fixed mortgage rates, which are now on a path to surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in a decade.
Posted on
April 5, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
The Canadian economy rose 0.2% in January, up for the eighth consecutive month. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.8% while services-producing industries remained flat on Omicron-related restrictions. Canadian real GDP is roughly 0.4 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew 0.8% in February.
With a high preliminary estimate for February, the Canadian economy appears to be on a strong growth path as it emerges from the Omicron-related slowdown. The Bank of Canada has noted that the slack in the Canadian economy is largely absorbed, which is partly why it hiked rates from 0.25% to 0.5% in early March. Amid strong GDP growth and high inflation, the expectation is that the bank will again raise rates at its upcoming announcement on April 13th by another 0.25% or even 0.5%. BCREA forecasts that the bank will continue raising rates until the overnight policy rate reaches 1.75 per cent, the level which prevailed prior to the COVID-19 crisis.
Posted on
March 16, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 5.7% on a year-over-year basis in February, up from 5.1% in January. This was the largest gain since August 1991 (+6.0%). According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 7.4% year over year, gasoline up 32.2%, and shelter costs up 6.6%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.7% year over year in February. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 3.5% year-over-year in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.7% year-over-year in February.
Tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Canada should slow demand and help to bring inflation down, though that will take time and rising oil and commodity prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine presents a risk of high inflation persisting longer than expected. Volatility in global financial markets briefly interrupted the upward march of long-term interest rates, however bond markets are once again pricing in an aggressively inflation-fighting Bank of Canada. We expect the Bank will increase its overnight rate five more times over the next year, bringing its key policy rate to 1.75 per cent before pausing to assess the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.
Posted on
February 16, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 5.1% on a year-over-year basis in January, up from 4.8% in December. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI rose 0.9% in January (0.6% seasonally adjusted). The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 3.2% year-over-year in January. Prices rose year-over-year across all major components of the index, but prices were driven in particular by a 6.2% rise in shelter costs, the highest rate of appreciation since February 1990. Goods (+7.2%) continued to rise at a faster pace than services (+3.4%) in January. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.3% year-over-year in January, driven in part by a 4.2% increase in average rents.
While inflation may moderate over the second half of this year, especially if gasoline prices come down from record highs and home price growth slows, we expect that inflation will still be trending well above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target in 2022. To counteract this inflation, the Bank of Canada will begin raising its overnight rate at its March 2 meeting. We expect the Bank will increase its overnight rate a total of six times over the next year, bringing its key policy rate to 1.75 per cent before pausing to assess the impact of higher interest rates on the economy. |
Posted on
February 4, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian employment declined by 200,000 (-1.0%) in January following seven consecutive months of gains, according to Statistics Canada. Employment losses in January were driven by stricter public health measures implemented to control Omicron in Ontario, Quebec, and in the Maritimes during the survey reference week of January 9 to 15.
In January, youth, core-aged women, and workers in food and accommodation suffered the largest drops in employment. Part-time workers saw steeper losses (-117,000; -3.3%) relative to full-time workers (-83,000; -0.5%). In January, 10% of workers reported being absent from work due to sickness or injury. The Canadian unemployment rate rose 0.5% to 6.5% in January, while the labour force participation rate declined 0.4% to 65%.
In BC, the economic story diverged from much of the rest of the country. Employment rose modestly (+4,200; 0.2%), remaining at the highest level since the pandemic began. The unemployment rate continued declining in January, reaching 5.1%. For the first time since the pandemic began, the unemployment rate in BC reached pre-pandemic levels, falling below the level of February 2020. BC is now tied with Manitoba for the lowest unemployment rate among the provinces.
Posted on
February 1, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Vancouver, BC – February 2, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2022 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 17 per cent from a record high 2021 to 103,250 units this year. In 2023 MLS® residential sales are forecast to fall an additional 12 per cent to 90,200 units.“We expected home sales in 2022 do moderate from the frenetic pace of 2021,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, sales activity will remain high by historical standards.”The BC housing market is entering 2022 with the lowest level of active listings on record and significant demand-side momentum. That means strong sales should persist through the first few months of the year and supply will remain severely limited. As a result, continued upward pressure on home prices is expected in all markets.As a result, home prices are expected to rise by 8.5 per cent in 2022 with much of that gain happening in the first half of the year. With sales activity normalizing in 2023 and inventories rebuilding, market conditions around the province should improve and price growth is anticipated to slow to 2.7 per cent.
Posted on
February 1, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
The Canadian economy expanded 0.6 per cent in November on a month-over-month basis, propelled by strong growth across essentially all sectors. Canadian real GDP is now 0.2 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was essentially flat in December.
At its most recent meeting, the Bank of Canada noted that the slack in the Canadian economy has been largely absorbed. Growth in the economy accelerated in the fourth quarter with real GDP growth tracking at 6.4 per cent annualized. Even with an expected Omicron driven slowdown in the first quarter of 2022, the Canadian economy is clearly on a very strong growth path. With inflation elevated and the robust growth, the Bank of Canada will begin raising its overnight rate at its March 2nd meeting, continuing quarterly rate hikes until the overnight policy rate reaches 1.75 per cent. Canadian 5-year fixed rates have already risen substantially, returning to their pre-pandemic level of about 2.9 per cent
Posted on
January 20, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose 0.7% to $58.1 billion in November. The rise was driven by sales at gasoline stations (+4.9%), building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+3.0%) and food and beverage stores (+1.0%). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and vehicle and parts sales, increased 0.5% in November. Part of this growth was due to price growth--retail sales rose 0.2% in volume terms.
In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales rose 0.8% in November. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 3.3% in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales rose 0.7% month-over-month and were up 9.4% year-over-year.
In November, Canadian e-commerce sales rose from $3.3 billion to $4.3 billion. As a result, e-commerce increased from 5.4% of total retail sales in October to 6.9% in November. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.
Posted on
January 19, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.8% on a year-over-year basis in December, up from 4.7% in November. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI declined 0.1% in December, the first monthly decline since December 2020. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.9% year-over-year in December. Higher prices for food (+5.2%), passenger vehicles (+7.2%) and homeowners' home and mortgage insurance (+9.3%) were major drivers of growth in the headline CPI. Supply-chain difficulties continued contributing to price gains, as well as the flooding and infrastructure damage in BC. In BC, consumer prices were essentially flat month-over-month, and up 3.9% on a year-over-year basis.
Inflation continues to run ahead of the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. Although transportation costs appear to be trending down, food and shelter costs are on the rise. While the food prices may reflect temporary supply chain issues, a recovery in Canadian rents and rising mortgage costs mean the shelter component of CPI may continue to rise in 2022. As a result, we expect this elevated level of inflation to persist through 2022 before prices begin moderating. The Bank of Canada has signaled that it will begin raising its policy rate this year, and markets are now expecting those rate increases to happen much earlier than previously anticipated, perhaps as early as the Bank of Canada meeting next week.
Posted on
January 13, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Vancouver, BC – January 12, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 124,854 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2021, a 32.8 per cent increase from the 94,001 units sold in 2020. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $927,877, an 18.7 per cent increase from $781,572 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $115.8 billion, a 57.7 per cent increase from 2020.
“Last year was a record year for BC homes sales with seven market areas setting new highs,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Listings activity could not keep up with demand throughout the year. As a result, we start 2022 with the lowest level of active listings on record.”
A total of 6,871 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded across the province in December down 17.6 per cent from a record-setting December 2020. The average MLS® residential price in BC passed the $1 million mark for the first time as the average price in three of the largest markets in the province were over $1 million in December. Total sales dollar volume was $7.1 billion, a 1.2 per cent increase year-over-year.
Total active residential listings were down 41.2 per cent to a record low of 12,179 units. The supply situation is particularly concerning in the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Vancouver Island where there is one month or less of supply at the current pace of sales.
Posted on
January 7, 2022
by
Geoff Cowling
Canadian employment grew for the seventh consecutive month in December according to Statistics Canada, rising by 55,000 to 19.371 million (0.3%, m/m). Canadian employment had recovered to its pre-pandemic level in September and is now roughly 1.3% above that level. Since the prior survey period, public health measures were largely unchanged. The survey occurred prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant and restrictions were very low across the country.
December employment gains were most pronounced among males aged 25-54, Ontarians, and those within the construction and education sectors. Fulltime employment increased by 123,000 (+0.8%) in December, whereas employment among those working part-time declined by 68,000 (-1.9%). The Canadian unemployment rate declined for a seventh consecutive month to 5.9%, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. The unemployment rate is now within 0.2% of the rate in February of 2020 (5.7%).
In BC, employment was essentially flat (+400, m/m), remaining at the highest level since the pandemic began. The unemployment rate, however, declined in December, reaching 5.3%, the lowest level since the pandemic began. Only Quebec and Manitoba currently have a lower unemployment rate in Canada.